Oscars 2015: Our Picks and Predictions — Part 2

On Monday, we posted PART ONE of our picks for the 2015 Academy Awards. Now we’re back to break down the remaining categories by who seems most likely to win on the big night and who truly deserves it. To keep track of how well we did with our predictions, watch the Oscars live on Sunday, February 22nd.

Joanna

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, Joanna, Our Curse, The Reaper, White Earth

Should Win: Joanna
Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Make no mistake: Joanna is a tearjerker. But this intimate story, that follows a mother dying of cancer as she spends her last days with her son, is artful in its sorrow. Director Aneta Kopacz and cinematographer Lukasz Zal (also nominated for his camerawork on Ida) use soft focus, precise framing, and impressionistic fades to make the film feel as much like the memory of a lost loved one as the final goodbye from a woman to her family. The more likely scenario, though, is that Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 rides the American Sniper wave of PTSD awareness to the podium. —Zack Miller

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Aya, Boogaloo and Graham, Butter Lamp, Parvaneh, The Phone Call

Should: Butter Lamp
Will: The Phone Call

Something about telephone help lines has caught the eye of the Academy this year; The Phone Call features a suicidal Jim Broadbent (never seen) calling a sympathetic Sally Hawkins (almost exclusively seen) during the last moments of his life. Subject matter and star power should guide it to the podium, but Butter Lamp is the true standout. It’s naturalistic and formally interesting — in fact, it could easily be mistaken for another sensory ethnography documentary. It’s also humorously perceptive: in our full review, we mentioned a scene where a woman bows in reverence before a giant image. Could anything be more meaningful to cinephiles? —Zack Miller

The Dam Keeper

ANIMATED SHORT

The Bigger Picture, The Dam Keeper, Feast, Me and my Moulton, A Single Life

Should: Any of them, really.
Will: Feast

What a joy this category is! It may seem like the overlap between Animated Feature and the other shorts categories, but these entries are more diverse and innovative than either. From the mixed-media stop motion of The Bigger Picture, to the perfect timing and cleverness of A Single Life, to the smudgy shadows and hand-painted lens flares of The Dam Keeper, each bite-sized bundle charms in its own unique way. With Disney in their corner, the likely victor is Feast, a cute look at companionship through a dog’s-eye view. —Zack Miller

SOUND MIXING

American Sniper, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Interstellar, Unbroken, Whiplash

Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice

 ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Jason Hall, American Sniper; Graham Moore, The Imitation Game; Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice; Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything; Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

Should: Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Will: Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything

Write-in: Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl

It was a great year for darkly comedic crime novels to hit the big screen. Thomas Pynchon’s specific hybrid of nostalgia and paranoia was thought to be inimitable until Paul Thomas Anderson expertly distilled it into Inherent Vice. Gillian Flynn didn’t face quite the same problem on Gone Girl: she adapted her own novel into a trashy, razor-sharp masterpiece for David Fincher. Either British biopic stands a fair chance at actually winning; of the two, The Theory of Everything felt warmer, more fluid, and has the audience-friendly benefit of a romance to fall back on. —Zack Miller

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., and Armando Bo, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance; Richard Linklater, Boyhood; E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher; Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

Write-in: Alex Ross Perry, Listen Up Philip; JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year

Birdman just about has this one in the bag, which is a shame because Wes Anderson’s screenplay for The Grand Budapest Hotel is one of the best things he’s ever written. All twee aside, the screenplay for Anderson’s latest film is a display of a continued maturity from a filmmaker who’s essentially playing a grown-up version of house with his friends. That’s not to disparage the work that Anderson does; in fact, I think it’s brilliant how well he’s able to juxtapose storybook imagery with fully realized tragedy. A wince, a sigh, and a word are all it takes for Anderson to elicit sobs from his audience, all filmed through a colorful and vibrant lens by fellow nominee Robert Yeoman.

It’s a massive stretch to think that Alex Ross Perry’s screenplay for Listen Up Philip had any chance of being nominated, but if Whiplash can do it, anyone can. Perry’s semi-biographical story about the life and times of Philip Roth (using characters with different names) is kind of brilliant. Had this film gotten more publicity at the time of its release, it may have been the indie darling that Whiplash was this year, and that Beasts of the Southern Wild was in 2013. The same goes for A Most Violent Year, which was unfairly forgotten despite being one of the year’s best films. —Josef Rodriguez

DIRECTING

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance); Richard Linklater, Boyhood; Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher; Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Should: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Will: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Iñárritu could possibly steal here, but voters with any sense will recognize the sheer boldness and determination of Linklater’s magnum opus. Undertaking a film with 12 years of uncertainty on the horizon was a high risk venture that paid out a high reward. Much of that is thanks to Linklater, whose specific and laid-back directorial style — he could be considered more of a “film facilitator”, pointing the camera in the right place and letting the right things happen — is the ultimate complement to Boyhood‘s focused wandering. —Zack Miller

Julianne Moore in Still Alice

LEAD ACTRESS

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything; Julianne Moore, Still Alice; Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl; Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Should: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Will:  Julianne Moore, Still Alice

People will call it a default win or a “lifetime achievement” Oscar — heaven knows she deserves it by now — but Julianne Moore’s performance in Still Alice deserves much better than that. She is subtle and graceful in a way that is ever in danger of being derailed by the heavy-handedness of the surrounding film, but she never relinquishes control or gives into the melodrama. If awards can be won on single scenes, the Academy should look no further than Alice’s visit to the doctor early in the film, where Moore puts on a master class in facial expressions. —Zack Miller

Bradley Cooper in American Sniper

LEAD ACTOR

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher; Bradley Cooper, American Sniper; Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game; Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance); Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Should: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Will: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Write-in: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler; David Oyelowo, Selma; Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year; Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

I realize I’m in quite a small minority when I say that, of the five men nominated this year, Bradley Cooper deserves it most. He’s the dark horse amongst his peers, the one nomination that, in a year of great performances, was not anticipated in the slightest. However, as the mediocrity of American Sniper washed over me, there was a diamond in the rough. That diamond was Bradley Cooper, whose portrayal of Chris Kyle is quite nearly perfect in every way. The performance is neither a caricature nor an imitation. For all the ranting and raving about wanting to make American Sniper the story of a man, Cooper is the only member of the cast or crew who seems to understand what this really means, because he makes Kyle seem like exactly that: just a man. By demystifying the myth and legend of the US Military’s most dangerous sniper in history, Cooper threatens to turn American Sniper into a legitimately good movie by turning in a great performance.

However, the awards favorite this year has been and will continue to be Eddie Redmayne, whose touching but ultimately cartoonish portrayal of Stephen Hawking is exactly what the Academy loves to see. The fact that Jake Gyllenhaal was, once again, completely ignored from the running — as well as David Oyelowo and Oscar Isaac, who were both phenomenal in Selma and A Most Violent Year, respectively — shows how out of touch the Academy continues to be. Redmayne is the safe bet, and at the Oscars the safe bet usually prevails. —Josef Rodriguez

BEST PICTURE

American Sniper, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

Should: Boyhood
Will: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

The “premiere source” for Oscar odds-making currently has Birdman at 18 to 1. If you’re not a gambling person, now might be a nice time to start. Iñárritu’s hypertensive middle finger of a comeback story has been picking up steam throughout the other industry-based awards shows, earning top honours from both the Screen Actors and Directors Guilds. Of course, Boyhood isn’t without acclaim, and deservedly so. A modern-day epic that feels remarkably small for all of its encompassing grandeur, it gets to the core of what all great cinema tries to embody: life. That description may sound trite, but that’s because Boyhood is an achievement that need not be talked about when it can be seen. —Zack Miller

Best Picture hopeful Boyhood

What’re your thoughts on the nominations? Who would you write-in? Let us know by leaving a comment below!